Not disputes and not cases: places where a state's AI-governance memberships, trade agreements and procurement choices pull against each other, and where another state has said so in public. Each entry names the two commitments, the dated events and their sources, and a status. Rings measure how far it has gone; the arena says where. The radar is read monthly and a blip moves against the previous edition.
Radar, September 2026
Watch two commitments in tension, no act by anyone yet
Signal a public statement or report pointing at the tension
Warning a formal notice: a letter, a demarche, a draft note reported by a wire
Measure a concrete act: an entity listing, a sanction, a tariff, a withdrawn contract
Rupture a membership ended, an agreement suspended or denounced
Reuters reports an undated draft note from the US State Department to the 35 signatories of the AI Opportunity Statement. Signature of the Declaration is called a commitment rather than a membership subscription; membership is said to be incompatible with duplicative initiatives whose expectations conflict with US expectations; signatories are asked to choose deliberately. The Department calls it a purportedly leaked internal document. Reuters, 14 Aug 2026, via TechTimes ↗
RFE/RL reports Kazakhstan as the only state in both frameworks and describes the pressure to choose; no formal response from Astana is on the record. RFE/RL, 13 Sep 2026 ↗
The note is undated and unconfirmed by its author, so the entry sits at Warning as Reported. It moves to Confirmed on a Department release, and inward on any act against a signatory.
Other party: United States · First seen 2026-08-14 · Last change 2026-09-13
MYMalaysiaSignalComputeReportedNew
A chip choice against three clauses of its trade agreement
The US Bureau of Industry and Security issues guidance under General Prohibition 10 naming the Ascend 910B, 910C and 910D as chips presumptively produced in violation of US export controls; its first release said use anywhere in the world violates the controls, wording the Bureau later removed. BIS guidance, 13 May 2025 ↗
Bloomberg reports Malaysia eyeing Huawei chips for the sovereign AI project despite the US warning, with the CLOUD Act given as the reason for avoiding US suppliers. Free Malaysia Today and Digitimes carry the same the next day; officials decline to comment. Bloomberg, 7 Sep 2026 ↗
Peter Harrell (Georgetown) reads the deal against the agreement: data centres fall inside the positive obligation on telecommunications and infrastructure investment; Article 5.2(2) speaks of restricting transactions with Entity List companies, not only exports to them, and picking Huawei is not restricting transactions; a centre that processes communications or logistics data would sit against the trusted-supplier commitment in the Annex. He notes the provisions are effectively unilateral and discretionary: the US decides whether there is a violation and whether to answer with tariffs, subject to a domestic-law basis. Peter Harrell on X, 7 Sep 2026 ↗
The South China Morning Post asks whether the deal would clash with the trade pact, reading it against the export-control commitments signed in October 2025. South China Morning Post, 8 Sep 2026 ↗
No US act toward Malaysia on this is on the record in 2026, so the entry sits at Signal. The agreement's own enforcement is unilateral: Article 7.4(2) lets a party act under its domestic law if it considers the other has not complied, with no dispute settlement. A notification under Article 5.1, or a tariff, would move the blip to Warning or Measure. Whether Washington answers, and how, is the test of what the economic-security clauses are worth.
Other party: United States · First seen 2026-09-07 · Last change 2026-09-08
ID KH BDIndonesia, Cambodia, BangladeshWatchTradeReportedNew
The Peterson Institute reads the nine signed agreements as built to push partners away from China, with penalty clauses discouraging deeper economic alignment with China. No party has invoked a clause. PIIE, 4 Jun 2026 ↗
A pair of commitments and no act, so a Watch. It moves to Signal when either side says the two sit in tension.
Other party: United States · First seen 2026-06-04 · Last change 2026-06-04
CNChinaSignalComputeReportedNew
Huawei's data-centre bid abroad, against US controls
Bloomberg reports Huawei's bid to build Egypt's AI data centres on 1,408 Ascend 950 chips plus 600 more, and Washington weighing a counter-offer. Bloomberg, 26 Aug 2026 ↗
Egypt is not an observatory state and appears only as the buyer. The entry is China's, at Signal, until a US act names the bid.
Other party: United States; Egypt as the buyer · First seen 2026-08-26 · Last change 2026-08-26
How to read the radar
Rings, outer to inner
Watch. Two commitments in tension, no act by anyone yet.
Signal. A public statement or report pointing at the tension.
Warning. A formal notice: a letter, a demarche, a draft note reported by a wire.
Measure. A concrete act: an entity listing, a sanction, a tariff, a withdrawn contract.
Rupture. A membership ended, an agreement suspended or denounced.
Arenas
Alignment. Blocs and memberships: Pax Silica, WAICO, the AI Opportunity Statement.
Compute. Chips, export controls, data centres, cloud.
Reported. The act rests on press or wire reporting; no primary text yet.
Confirmed. A party's own release or the instrument itself is on the record.
Denied. A party has denied the act or the tension.
Resolved. One of the two commitments has given way.
Method
An entry needs two identifiable commitments and one dated public act by a party pointing at the other. A pair of commitments with no act is a Watch, never higher.
Reported until a primary text exists. A leaked and undated note carried by a wire is Reported; the ministry's own release is Confirmed. Headlines do not upgrade a status.
The observatory never writes breach, violation or contravention in its own voice unless a party or a tribunal used the word. The entry names the clause in tension and leaves the conclusion to the reader.
Every instrument named is linked, to the country edition where it carries the instrument, otherwise to the primary text. Every blip involves at least one of the thirty-one states covered by this series; other states appear only as the other party.
Independent research and educational profiles; not affiliated with, or endorsed by, any government or organisation named here.
An independent research and educational project. Information is provided as-is, may be incomplete, and does not constitute legal advice.